Aviation Capital Risk Intelligence

We tell you what your rights are worth under pressure.

Not as an estimate — as a measurement. Vectus quantifies uncertainty where today only assumptions exist: one integrated platform converting jurisdiction risk, airline distress, asset liquidity, deal structure and portfolio exposure into a single dollar-denominated credit decision.

Every institution financing aircraft faces a gap between what it knows and what it needs to know to commit tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. Vectus exists to shrink that gap.

7
Integrated Modules
250+
Enforcement Events
96
Jurisdictions
100%
Back-Test Within Band

The Problem

Aviation finance runs on fragmented information.

A lender assembling a deal today receives appraisals, legal opinions, airline credit analysis and market data from independent providers. Each solves one piece. Nobody integrates everything into one coherent, defensible credit decision.

01
The legal framework is scored.
CTC compliance, Alternative A declarations, IDERA procedures. What the law says — updated twice a year, silent on what courts actually do under pressure.
A framework score can be high the day before a sovereign event makes it irrelevant.
02
The airline is scored.
Credit profiles, default probability, distress signals. What the counterparty looks like — with no dimension for what happens to your aircraft after the default.
Default probability without enforcement outcome is half a risk number.
03
The asset is valued.
Current market value, lease rates, fleet data. What the collateral is worth today — in a functioning market, with a cooperative counterparty, unadjusted for recovery reality.
CMV is not what you recover. Enforcement-adjusted recovery is.
Nobody integrates these into one number a credit committee can act on. Vectus is that integration layer — it quantifies the uncertainty that today lives in assumptions, relationships and gut feel.
The output is not another report. It is a decision.

Risk Coverage

Enforcement fails in three ways. Most tools screen for one.

Mapping enforcement outcomes across hundreds of repossession events shows that every failure falls into one of three types — each with a completely different risk profile and a completely different mitigation strategy. The platform quantifies all three.

Type 1
Legal framework failure
The country never signed the treaty framework — or signed but never implemented it. No treaty protection; remedies depend entirely on local law, which may not recognise the financier's interest. This is the visible risk. Most lenders already screen for it.
Covered: treaty status, implementation quality, local law conflicts.
Type 2
Judicial failure
The country signed and ratified. On paper the financier is protected. But courts move slowly, rule inconsistently, or apply insolvency moratoria that suspend treaty rights for months or years. Framework compliance and judicial reliability are not the same thing.
Covered: moratorium risk, judicial delay, adverse precedents, court reliability.
Type 3
Political failure
The framework exists. The courts function. The government intervenes anyway: currency controls block value repatriation, export permits are withheld, sanctions freeze positions, a ministry call overrides a court order. The hardest type to price — and the most expensive when it lands.
Covered: sovereign seizure, sanctions regimes, currency controls, export restrictions.
Geopolitical risk is not a footnote in the model. It is scored, hard-ruled and stress-tested — down to the sovereign tail scenario where every legal protection fails simultaneously.
Right now, most portfolios treat all three failure types as one. That is the mispricing the platform quantifies.

The Platform

Seven analytical engines. One integrated decision system.

The modules are not separate products. They are layers of one architecture: four measurement engines feed one integration layer, which drives two decision engines — ending in a single number, in dollars, with a recommendation.

Layer 1 Measurement — four independent risk engines
JES
Jurisdiction Enforcement Score
What actually happens when enforcement is tested — not what the law says should happen?
250+ events · 96 jurisdictions
ADS
Airline Distress Score
How likely is this airline to default in the next 12 months?
4-dimension early warning
ARS
Asset Redeployability Score
If repossessed, what is this aircraft actually worth in the market?
Demand · supply · condition · delay
DSS
Deal Structure Score
How well does the transaction's legal architecture protect the lender?
9 deal terms · risk multiplier
Layer 2 Integration
EOS
Enforcement Outcome Score
Given distress in this specific deal — what recovery rate and timeline will the lender actually experience? The only tool in the market predicting enforcement outcomes anchored to a proprietary database of real events.
Proprietary integration weighting
Layer 3 Decision
ELD
Expected Loss Dashboard
PD × LGD × exposure — expected loss in dollars, stressed scenarios, deposit sizing, IRR impact. The credit committee output.
Base · moderate · severe · sovereign tail
PCS
Portfolio Concentration Score
What does this deal do to the book? Four concentration dimensions with the power to veto an otherwise approvable transaction.
Jurisdiction · airline · type · maturity
One number. In dollars. With a recommendation.
Every question a credit committee asks about an aviation finance deal — answered from one framework.
APPROVE
Sample recommendation
What you receive per deal — concrete, committee-ready outputs
Expected loss in USD
Probability of default × loss given default × exposure — one dollar figure, not a rating letter.
Stressed loss scenarios
Sector downturn, correlation event, and the sovereign tail where every protection fails at once.
Recovery timeline
How long repossession realistically takes in this jurisdiction — weeks, months or years.
Security deposit sizing
The deposit that actually covers the risk — rent-based and loss-based, whichever is greater.
Pricing impact
Expected loss translated into annualised yield drag — basis points, deal-comparable.
Portfolio verdict
Whether the book can absorb the deal — including the power to veto an otherwise approvable transaction.

The Foundation Layer

The Jurisdiction Enforcement Score.

JES — the Jurisdiction Enforcement Score — is a 0–100 measure of what actually happens when a financier tries to recover an aircraft in a given country. It answers the three questions a legal opinion cannot: how long will recovery take, what will it cost, and what fraction of value will survive the process. Everything in aviation credit ultimately depends on this — which is why JES is the foundation the platform is built on. Scores are derived from 250+ documented enforcement events, not from legal frameworks.

19
EXTREME
Russia
Sample from the current database release · Full coverage: 96 jurisdictions

Every score ships with a confidence rating, the event evidence behind it, and the enforcement timeline it implies. Full jurisdiction coverage is delivered to clients only.


Methodology

Transparent architecture. Proprietary engine.

Every factor has an economic explanation, a measurement methodology, a weighting rationale and validation evidence. Dimension weights, factor calibration and the integration formula are proprietary — disclosed to clients under NDA as part of the methodology documentation. The reasoning is always explainable: a credit officer can challenge any score and receive a documented answer.

D1
Legal Framework
CTC ratification, Alt A declarations, IDERA procedures, local law conflicts.
D2
Event History
Documented repossession events, friction scores, recency weighting, outcome patterns.
D3
Judicial Reliability
Rule of law, enforceability, insolvency moratorium risk, adverse precedent flags.
D4
Regulatory Friction
CAA cooperation, deregistration speed, export permits, sanctions exposure.
D5
Recovery Rate
Actual % of value recovered, asset condition on return, time to possession.

Validation

Validated against documented outcomes.

The methodology is back-tested out-of-sample against documented enforcement events — every case scored using only the information available before the event. Not a fitted curve.

90%
Exact Band Accuracy
✓ Pass
100%
Within One Band
✓ Pass
95.9%
5-Fold Cross-Val
✓ Pass
0
Catastrophic Misses
✓ Pass

The model has never called EXTREME what turned out to be MINIMAL, or vice versa — across sovereign seizures, insolvency moratoria and voluntary administrations. The small number of near-misses are documented and disclosed to clients: each represents genuine enforcement ambiguity, not model failure. External validation by industry practitioners is the current objective — the methodology is built to be challenged.


First conversations open now.

"Vectus quantifies uncertainty where today only assumptions exist."

Not selling a subscription. Looking for practitioners in aviation finance who will stress-test the platform against a real deal — and tell us where it's wrong.

Founder
Yves Schwyter
Entity
Vectus Intelligence · Zurich, Switzerland
Status
Pre-commercial · First conversations Q3 2026