Aviation Capital Risk Intelligence

We score what actually happens when you try to repossess an aircraft — not what the law says should happen.

Legal opinions, credit ratings and appraisals are built separately and never talk to each other. Vectus brings jurisdiction enforcement, airline distress, asset liquidity and deal structure into one defensible view — anchored to a proprietary database of real enforcement outcomes.

Cited by Reuters on airBaltic's bond restructuring, September 2026

Aviation credit is priced by specialists who never compare notes.

A legal opinion assesses enforceability in theory. An appraisal values the asset in isolation. A credit rating scores the airline, not the aircraft, the jurisdiction, or the deal that wraps around it.

Each one is defensible on its own. None of them answer the question a lender actually needs answered: if this airline fails, in this jurisdiction, under this deal structure, what do we actually get back — and how long does it take?

That gap is where mispricing lives, and where every enforcement surprise starts.

01
Legal opinion
Enforceability in theory — not in practice
02
Asset appraisal
Value in isolation — not in a forced sale
03
Credit rating
Scores the airline — not the aircraft or the deal
Vectus integrates all three
The Framework

Seven analytical engines. One integrated view.

Each engine answers one question a credit committee actually asks. Together, they produce a single recommendation — never a replacement for your own process.

JES
Jurisdiction Enforcement Score
What actually happens when enforcement is tested in this country?
ADS
Airline Distress Score
How likely is this airline to default within 12 months?
ARS
Asset Redeployability Score
If repossessed, what is this aircraft worth, and how fast can it be placed?
DSS
Deal Structure Score
How well does the legal and commercial structure actually protect the lender?
EOS
Enforcement Outcome Score
What recovery rate and timeline will realistically be experienced?
ELD
Expected Loss Dashboard
What is the dollar loss — probability of default × loss given default?
PCS
Portfolio Concentration Score
What does this deal do to overall portfolio exposure?
● Illustrative demo — synthetic inputs and output, not connected to the live enforcement database

See the framework work.

This runs a simplified, publicly-safe version of the logic — enough to show how the pieces interact. The real model is more granular, and its weights are disclosed to clients under NDA, not published here.

70
Illustrative score
Jurisdiction
Deal structure
Asset liquidity
Time-in-enforcement drag
Illustrative formula only — a simple weighted combination for demonstration. Not the proprietary model, not a real assessment.
How We Work

The discipline behind the numbers

Tested against reality, not just theory

Every assumption is checked against a proprietary database of 170+ documented enforcement events across 70+ jurisdictions — not legal frameworks alone, but what actually happened when lessors tried to recover aircraft.

Disclosed limitations, not hidden ones

Where our own accuracy is still developing, we say so — in the methodology, and in the specific deals it affects. A model that hides its weak points isn't one you can build a real decision on.

Back-tested out-of-sample

Every case is scored using only the information available before the event, not fitted to the outcome afterward.

An input, never the decision

Every output supports your own credit committee's process. Final approval authority always rests with you.

In the Press
"We score what actually happens when you try to repossess — not what the law says should happen."
Vectus Intelligence, cited by Reuters on airBaltic's bond restructuring — September 2026
"Not selling a subscription. Looking for practitioners in aviation finance who will stress-test the framework against a real deal — and tell us where it's wrong."

If you underwrite, finance, lease or manage aviation assets and want to see where this framework holds up and where it doesn't, we want that conversation.

Founder
Yves Schwyter
Entity
Vectus Intelligence · Zurich, Switzerland
Status
Pre-commercial — first conversations open